When countries get richer, do they send more migrants? Maybe that’s not true. Two economists consider the well-known thesis of the “migration hump” to be wrong.

Refugees from Africa call for help in a boat on the Mediterranean in 2017.

Mhe view of Africa, some migration researchers lower their voices when they talk about future migratory pressures. Nobody can predict with certainty how many emigrants from African countries will set out and want to come to Europe in the coming years and decades. Some factors indicate potentially very high migration rates. One of them is rapid population growth. According to the mean UN estimate, the population will increase from a good 1.3 billion people in Africa today to 2.5 billion by 2050. Every year in sub-Saharan Africa alone, the population grows by 25 million. Another factor is poverty, the enormous wealth gap with Europe.

There are worrying surveys according to which in many African countries more than a third of people think of emigration, one in six even thinks “a lot”. This was the result of a large survey by the pan-African research network Afrobarometer last year. More than a quarter name Europe as their dream destination. Gallup surveys repeatedly come to similar results. The Africans surveyed cite the poor economic situation as the main reason for wanting to emigrate. Despite some improvements in individual countries, there is still poverty and misery for the masses.