Analyst: Shares will sell in May. Salary in the investment world?

and be interested in investments. A number of people are in the investment and take a variety of tips on how to manage your portfolio. Do the lessons observed in the world of finance work? Do they pay to manage their investments according to them? Investment analyst Vclav Pech from the Broker Trust fell in love with this in his commentary.

Our teachers have equipped many of the various, very observed lessons for life, which can tell us what will happen in the near future. This is especially evident in the weather. St. Anne’s announces the passage of cold winds, and according to folk wisdom, for example, according to folk wisdom, the period of a long period of childhood is growing.

Similar expectations exist in the stock or commodity markets. As a rule, the term seasonality is hidden. This, for example, is that the price of corn (but also pennies and seedlings) is the lowest in the autumn, and vice versa, first in the market for these commodities in the summer. The courts are perfectly logical. In autumn, all genera are harvested and the spikes are full. genus do not warm the fluctuations of poas.

If there is a lot of it on the market, it is clear that the price is low. In lt the stocks in spkch ten and new plants are going to the fields. There a lot of influence on n psob. First of all, it is still an unpredictable part of the day, its difficulties with the family and future ways of commodities can be encouraged. The corn is small, the price will be high. The classic seasonal graph shows how the price of corn during the year usually varies.


The strategy of buying corn in January and selling it in June has been in six percent of cases in the last ten years, which has not been completely diminished. So the one who bought cheap corn in the winter sold it in the summer with a profit of six out of ten cases. This, of course, means that such a business, just on the basis of seasonality, needs to be realized every year. However, the tendency of the market to share such a ride is strong.

Beware of pranostics at the event

My most famous investment pranostika comes from the world of action and a number of traders: Sell in May and go away! Free peloeno: In May sales from the market pry. What about the real usefulness of this advice?

In the world of stock indices, there are no harvest days and other similar factors, which would be similar to the pranostics opt. Rational basis for their completion, therefore, errors. When, as with corn, we look back, then the number of such trades is negligible. Anyone who has sold American shares in the last five years at the time of the May meeting is cheap to buy them, was only in twenty percent of cases.

Yes, we are in the bm (growing) market, so it is normal that such trades do not have to be closed. This type of trade is most effective over the twenty-year horizon, but even there their share did not approach fifty percent. Therefore, it may not be a good strategy to sell your stock portfolio in May.

Probably the only way to grasp this pranostic is shown in the following seasonal chart compiled for stock indices, which contains data from the last thirty years.


The chart shows that with the advent of June, the stock market in the period of abundance and stock prices from June to the fall of autumn usually stagnates and suffers from volatility. This allows me to short-term traders to slightly reduce their equity portfolios at the time of this period, thus reducing their exposure to risk.

For long-term investors, who should be in vain, but thanks to the sale in May, I know the gas and I can help them, not help. As a rule, these market fluctuations do not overheat long-term investments at all.