Opec raises forecast for global oil demand

The oil states calculate: The consumption of oil around the world is likely to increase by 6 million barrels a day this year compared to 2020. The oil price reacts.

Oil platform in the North Sea: The oil price is rising.

Dhe Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects greater demand for crude oil than previously thought. The oil cartel raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 190,000 barrels (159 liter barrels) per day. This emerges from the monthly report published by the organization in Vienna on Tuesday. According to this, an average demand of 96.46 million barrels per day can be expected this year.

That would be a significant recovery compared to the previous year. The oil cartel is therefore assuming an increase in demand of around 6 million barrels compared to 2020, which was heavily influenced by the Corona crisis.

The oil price rose slightly on Tuesday and was quoted at times at more than $ 64 a barrel for the North Sea Brent in the afternoon.

As a reason for the higher forecast, OPEC cited higher fuel consumption in the coming months. The oil cartel expects more vacation trips in the summer months. In addition, advances in corona vaccinations should generally lead to an increase in economic output and, associated with this, stronger demand for oil, the report says.

Demand should recover

For the second quarter, i.e. the months from April to June, OPEC expects an average demand for crude oil in a volume of 26.85 million barrels per day and of 28.33 million in the third quarter. With the increasing demand, the last decided increase in the delivery rate could be absorbed.

At the beginning of April, OPEC agreed on higher production volumes together with allied oil states that have merged in OPEC plus. For the months of May, June and July, the oil alliance, consisting of 23 countries, wants to increase its production despite the imponderables of the Corona crisis. In May and June, 350,000 more barrels per day are to be brought onto the market than currently. In July, the increase should be 450,000 barrels a day.

After the OPEC meeting before Easter, at which it was decided to expand oil production, the oil price initially rose. That had caused astonishment among analysts. It is possible that OPEC’s change of course was interpreted as an indicator of higher expectations for oil demand. But that was soon corrected. Despite recent advances in vaccination campaigns, investors were concerned about the number of infections, the oil market said.

How should things go on in the course of the year? Jeff Currie, commodities specialist at the investment bank Goldman Sachs, expects the price of oil to rise to $ 80 in the summer. He speaks of the recent oil sell-off as a “temporary setback” in an otherwise “big” oil price rally. Commerzbank is a little more skeptical.