Sensitive phase for real estate prices

Will the coronavirus burst a bubble in the real estate market? At least until now, apartments in this country have become more expensive. The front runner is Munich, but the most expensive district is not in Bavaria.

Newly built houses with condominiums stand next to old buildings in Cologne's Südstadt district.

AStocks have fallen dramatically in value, oil has become cheaper, and even the price of gold has recently been unable to escape the general bear market. But what about real estate? After all, real estate stocks lost on “Black Monday” a week ago, albeit significantly less than the German Dax stock index. But is there now also a structural decline in real estate prices if Germany’s economy as a whole is sluggish for some time and is unlikely to grow as previously expected over the course of the year? Will the virus and its consequences possibly even trigger the bursting of a bubble in the German real estate market, as pessimists have long expected?

Postbank, which has just completed its annual “Housing Atlas” together with the Hamburg World Economic Institute (HWWI), which is available exclusively to the FAZ, is extremely cautious. “It is not yet possible to estimate at this point in time whether the current Corona crisis will have an impact on the real estate market,” says Eva Grünwald, Head of Real Estate Business at Postbank. For the past year, on the other hand, 90 percent of all German districts and urban districts reported an increase in real estate prices. On a national average, the plus compared to 2018, adjusted for inflation, was 9.3 percent – and was thus even greater than in the previous year.