The 10 Dax climbers under the microscope

The leading index grows from 30 to 40 stocks in September. In the race for inclusion, Brenntag and Puma are particularly convincing with their attractive overall technical situation.

The Dax curve in the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

IIn September 2021, as part of the index reform, the Dax 30 will be increased by a further ten stocks to the Dax 40. The market capitalization (measured by the free float) will be the main selection criterion for the starting composition. In addition to the current Dax 30 stocks and the now six M-Dax stocks with the current status of “Fast Entry”, there are currently six other M-Dax stocks that, from an index point of view, are in the “race” for a further four Dax stocks. 40 seats are.

These values, which are currently not among the top 5 in the M-Dax 60, should receive more attention from market participants in the medium term if they are included in the new Dax 40 than in their current position in the index system. Of these values, Brenntag (defensive technical [Zu-]Purchase) and Puma (speculative technical [Zu-] Purchase) an attractive overall technical situation.

In addition to the five M-Dax values ​​so far (Airbus, Zalando, Porsche Automobil Holding Vorzüge, Siemens Healthineers and Symrise), Hellofresh (technically holding after the bull market in 2020) was also able to just move up to a “Fast Entry” position. “Fast Entry” position means that this current non-Dax 30 stock has achieved a ranking among the top 33 for market capitalization based on free float. This currently requires a level of 12.3 billion euros.

In addition, there are two M-Dax values ​​- Brenntag and Sartorius Vorzüge (in an intact technical bull market since 2009; technically overbought; acquisitions would currently be procyclical) – which have a clear lead on ranking position 40, which is around 9.5 billion Euros. For the remaining places 39 and 40 in the new Dax 40, four more M-Dax values ​​are in the running from an index point of view. Qiagen (position 39; technical hold) and Hannover Re (position 40; technical hold) currently hold these two positions. Behind this is Beiersdorf (technically holding) with a gap (based on market capitalization according to free float) of 4.9 percent to position 40. Puma follows directly behind with a gap of 11.6 percent. The last aspect is the spin-off of “Daimler Truck & Bus” from the parent company, which is planned for the second half of 2021. Here, the exact structure of this transaction should still influence the Dax 40 – either at the start composition or later in December 2021 in the event of an extraordinary index adjustment.

Image: FAZ

From a technical point of view, the share of the chemical logistics company Brenntag is characterized by two basic features. First of all, this stock is a defensive, technical growth stock that has a very quiet price trend. In addition, the entire course of the share price since the listing in March 2010 (taking into account the share split in August 2014) can be divided into “only” three technical phases. First, the fine bull market from May 2010 to April 2015 with a total increase from 16.00 euros to 59.40 euros. The second phase is a sideways / downward pendulum movement, which ended in a technical sell-off at 28.70 euros during the corona overall market bear market in March 2020. The third phase is the medium-term technical bull market that has existed since then.

The overriding investment buy signal, with which Brenntag left the second technical phase with prices above EUR 53.00 in September 2020, continues to work with a high quality. Due to the intact medium-term bullish trend that has existed since then (bullish trend line currently at EUR 65.00), Brenntag is in a technical revaluation, whereby the next stage target should be around EUR 78.00. Brenntag, which based on the current data in a Dax 40 would be in position 35 with an index weight of around 0.8 percent and a gross dividend yield of 1.8 percent (gross dividend of 1.35 euros; ex on June 11, 2021) remains a defensive technical (additional) purchase. Despite this good overall technical situation, every Brenntag position should be given a strategic safety stop at 62.00 euros.

Puma started again from a technical point of view

Puma is also in the running for the Dax-40 admission. At the Franconian sporting goods manufacturer, the recently increased free float is around 60.8 percent. It should be taken into account here that the major shareholder, the French Kering, which is listed in the Euro Stoxx 50, will further reduce its stake in Puma in 2021 through another placement. As a consequence, the higher free float would then increase Puma’s chances of participating in the Dax 40. After years of sideways movement with a slightly negative basic orientation, the Puma share has been in a new, stable bull market since the price low of EUR 14.10 in June 2015.

Apart from the corona intermediate bear market (February / March 2020), an ideal-typical bull market with an interplay of investment buy signals, medium-term upward trends and trend-confirming consolidations has emerged. Starting from the old all-time high of € 93.40 (turn of the year 2020/2021; resistance zone), below this price level there was a volatile sideways consolidation (trading range with support around € 75.00, staggered resistance zone from € 90.00 to € 93.40 Euros) to reduce the previously overbought situation.

In the past trading days, Puma has jumped again from a technical point of view and is working on a new (investment) buy signal (sustainable jump over the staggered resistance zone). Since the overall technical situation indicates a continuation of the bull market and the next stage target should be in the range of 105.00 euros to 110.00 euros, Puma remains a growth stock and a technical (additional) purchase. However, every Puma position should be covered with a strategic safety stop at EUR 73.00.